tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post1980345535122732171..comments2024-01-01T01:47:59.449+02:00Comments on Yaacov Lozowick's Ruminations: On Changing the Dynamics of the ConflictYaacovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-1817853033011659432011-05-31T06:08:07.547+03:002011-05-31T06:08:07.547+03:00Just to respond to one thing here. It is stupid f...Just to respond to one thing here. It is stupid for Israel to always wait to respond to the rockets. Other people say it would be a war of attrition but I think Israel should respond to each and every provocation-hard. Israel does not do that now, as they promised to do during Oslo,e tc. Hamas launches rockets into Israel towns and Israel bombs empty fields. Israel can destroy all the smuggling tunnels and the international community would stay quiet. Why don't they do that? I really don't understand many of Israel's actions. <br />I also do not believe that Israel's control of the WB stops Hezbollah from shooting rockets, which is what you are essentially saying. The terrorists, and there are many diff. groups, have rockets capable of hitting all of Israel as I said many times, and that you just admitted they probably have in Gaza. They just have to understand it is not in their best interest and so far they understand that. In the future, they may be stupid, and if so, they should pay.Carrienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-47137502493729892542011-05-30T22:04:55.620+03:002011-05-30T22:04:55.620+03:00I've now responded in a separate post. Everyon...I've now responded in a separate post. Everyone's welcome to disagree with me there.<br />http://yaacovlozowick.blogspot.com/2011/05/dare-to-leave-palestinians-alone.htmlYaacovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-80411564160628196262011-05-30T21:46:10.423+03:002011-05-30T21:46:10.423+03:00Dmitry, I am also amazed at this comment. Israel ...Dmitry, I am also amazed at this comment. Israel had virtually no succcess at destroying the short range missiles in 2006. The longer range missiles are larger, fewer in number, easier to spot and easier to track. They are also more valuable to the enemy making the cost equation more balanced.<br /><br />We have all heard the "hitting them hard" argument during Oslo, during the pullout from Lebanon, during the pullout from Gaza. Look at the reality. Look how long it took to react and look at the effect "hitting them hard" had on Israel. Hell look at the "positive effect" it had on either peace or Israeli feel-good or Israel's image in the world.<br /><br />I certainly would not support building any more settlements or sinking more in money but to just pull out for the heck of it has to be delusional.<br /><br />DannyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-34461107367245980652011-05-30T21:01:03.728+03:002011-05-30T21:01:03.728+03:00To tell you the truth, Carrie, I am somewhat at a ...To tell you the truth, Carrie, I am somewhat at a loss at your denial of the rather realistic threat. After the damage done to Israel by the intifadah, after the major damage the North sustained during a mere month confrontation with Hezbollah, and after the total devastation of the economy in the areas surrounding Gaza, you still claim that if this were to happen in central region of Israel there wouldn't be dire consequences.<br /><br />I mean, you can say that you think the damage to Israel from continuing the status quo is greater (I would disagree with such a position, but it is at least a logical position), but you try to deny any danger from such a move at all, or try comparing the economic costs of the situations. C'mon.Dimitrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-56565807924399888762011-05-30T20:44:58.059+03:002011-05-30T20:44:58.059+03:00Carrie, I am making sense, yuo just don't loo...Carrie, I am making sense, yuo just don't look at distinctions between situations. Qassams and mortars continue to this day on Sderot and the surroundings. They do not happen on Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion for one reason only -- IDF's presense in the WB. <br /><br />As for Hamas smuggling into Gaza longer range rockets, you continuously hear reports about this and it is a major concern.<br /><br />As for "hit them hard' and deterrence. Sure, it will happen. It'll take about two years of Israel taking it in (especially if Palestine is declared a sovereign state) and then it'll finally will have to reoccupy much of WB. Same as it was with intifadah before Defensive Shield and Gaza before Cast Lead (you see that deterrence largely held for 2 years, though I doubt that a rocket a day falling on Gush Dan would be considered as "holding")<br /><br />As for imposing borders. Not only that I don't believ it'll happen, but the argument that Israel should commit suicide to forestall such an eventuality strikes me as strange.<br /><br />P.S. Yes, Israel fought against three Arab armies and won. How much economical devastation did Yom Kippur War brought? What would happen in the eventuality of something like this happening today? As I said, Israel would win, no doubt about it, but it's economy would be devastated for years.<br /><br />P.P.S. You might want to actually revisit my posts, as I think you assign to me some positions that I don't hold. Specifically, I think that removing farflung settlements while leaving military presense until a solution to the rocket threat is found or until things change on the Palestinian side makes a lot of sense.Dimitrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-64545032730250793252011-05-30T20:27:17.119+03:002011-05-30T20:27:17.119+03:00Dimitry,
You are not making any sense. What I sai...Dimitry,<br />You are not making any sense. What I said is that the terrorists already have rockets capable of reaching all of Israel. If they decide to do it ALL OF ISRAEL IS ALREADY IN RANGE, whether they leave the WB or not. Israel has to make sure that there will be grave consequences if they do such a thing. They established deterrence with Lebanon '06 and Cast Lead and they can do it again. As Netanyahu said "hit them hard." <br /><br />You are also pretending that Hamas it not already smuggling in rockets thru the tunnels. I am sure they also possess some that can hit all of Israel. So they already can do it, but have decided it is not in their best interest to do so. Hamas/Fatah do not need the WB to hit Israel. They already can. Maybe you have convinced yourself otherwise, but this is reality.<br /><br />Israel beat back 3 Arab armies with less territory, now they have superior military might, including technology and more soldiers. If they need to defeat the Palestinians, they can, and will.<br /><br />You wanna wait for Obama to draw borders, that is your business, but I assume most Israelis want to control their own destiny.Carrienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-4562886873209226262011-05-30T16:44:50.449+03:002011-05-30T16:44:50.449+03:00Really, Carrie? Have you been to the northern part...Really, Carrie? Have you been to the northern part of Israel during '06 war? We are talking ghost town here. And where, pray tell, people who left the North would go if it were the whole country? This is not bs excuse. Your refusal to face the seriousness of the threat makes your argument unserious. Let me ask you a question, I always ask people who I think are advancing wishful thinking over reality, "Do you have a solution for the case you are wrong? What happens if my predictions come true? Do you have solutions to mitigate the consequences?" If not, you shouldn'd be in the business advocating policy one way or the other.Dimitrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-83258567975545064522011-05-30T13:15:49.735+03:002011-05-30T13:15:49.735+03:00One thing I don't understand. The Quartet is o...One thing I don't understand. The Quartet is obviously quite eager to announce the 1967 'borders'. Why did Obama try to get an announcement at the G-8, a group concerned mainly with economic matters? Why not simply have the quartet announce the new parameters? In fact, if he was simply going to agree, why did the US put the previous Quartet meeting on hold?<br />T34Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-79941390195922625152011-05-30T11:20:20.705+03:002011-05-30T11:20:20.705+03:00thanks Yaacov
for emphasizing that
to me it read...thanks Yaacov<br /><br />for emphasizing that <br />to me it read pretty close to lots of what I read about "let's dismantle the settlements" like "they" don't belong. <br /><br />------<br /><br />but one very practical question:<br /><br />as I understand it some of Ahava is produced in a place to which the BDS objects. <br /><br />What would happen to that? <br />what would happen to those jobs?<br /><br />Apparently there are lots of other BDS-protests going on in London, what would happen to all those jobs. <br /><br />Lets say Israel has disengaged from all the BDS objects too, what will the BDS come up with/focus on next?<br /><br />You don't expect BDS to dissolve into thin air because their claim has lost "legitimacy"?Silkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16383345395827271854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-61560094463587245252011-05-30T09:06:19.045+03:002011-05-30T09:06:19.045+03:00Silke,
I never said Israel - majority, minority, ...Silke,<br /><br />I never said Israel - majority, minority, the state - isn't responsible for the settlement project. We did it, we're responsible. Of course.<br /><br />What I said was that since it has been a minority project for most of the years of its existence, it's reasonable for the majority to put an end to it at some point. This is not the case with Jerusalem.<br /><br />Saul, Dimitry and others: I'll respond in a separate post, not in the comments.Yaacovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-67662070684197421122011-05-30T07:56:22.275+03:002011-05-30T07:56:22.275+03:00Dimitry,
Hezbollah has rockets capable of reachin...Dimitry,<br /><br />Hezbollah has rockets capable of reaching all of Israel, including Ben Gurion. There are still investors. <br /><br />I am as rightwing as you can get, but even I can sense that these are BS excuses. Israel needs to draw her own borders before they are drawn for her, by hostile international elitists.Carrienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-30281034452912524312011-05-30T04:53:56.276+03:002011-05-30T04:53:56.276+03:00Regarding the penultimate paragraph...
I wish it w...Regarding the penultimate paragraph...<br />I wish it were that easy!<br />The Palestinians like their Lebanese counterparts would whine and complain that whatever they have is not enough and in fact will never be enough. And they won't be judged at all! It will be the Jews who will be judged since they alone will be held accountable for all that doesn't appease the Arabs.<br />Look at the Sheeba farms situation. The Israelis will no doubt be urged by the Palis and the West as well (or most of it) to "compromise a little more, give up a little more, all in the name of peace and coexistence.<br />The Arabs will never give up their dreams and hopes of erasing Israel, the Jews and anything associated with them, their culture, their history including the archeology.<br />The history of the Mandate and the Arabs within it has shown that their aims and desires has not weakened, at least not that of their leaders'.<br />If the Palestinians were to rise up tomorrow, overthrow their leaders and say:" Yes let's negotiate", then something could be worked out. But we know they won't. Their history has been replaced by a false yet powerful mythology, shared by many in the West whose ignorance is only surpassed by their close-mindedness and unwillingness to seek the truth.<br />So over the years I've slowly moved from a position that a 2-state solution is possible and desirable to the realization that a 2-state solution is impossible and dangerous.yesjbnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-81008079569895990442011-05-30T04:29:47.885+03:002011-05-30T04:29:47.885+03:00Yaacov, I am still not seeing how you address the ...Yaacov, I am still not seeing how you address the actual issue. You say that dividing Jerusalem in an "end of conflict" scenario would lead to war, right? I generally agree that this is extremely risky proposition and which is nearly impossible to prevent. Currently, the same can be said about withdrawal from the WB. And yet, you support one and not the other. Why?<br /><br />Carrie. C'mon. The two are incomparable. You remember the second intifadah, right? When Israeli sports teams had to play outside Israeli borders (even long after things stabilized), foreign teams and performers refused to come to Israel etc. Now, add to such a scenario significant risk of planes being brought down at Ben Gurion, missiles falling in the industrial areas of Hertzlia Pituah, Netanya, Caesaria, Beer Sheva, Petah Tikva etc. How long would foreign investers will keep investing? Or at least try shifting significant operations abroad? I think you underestimate the possible damage. Granted the economic downturn at the beginning of the century was not solely due to the intifadah, but the severity was part of it and Israel came pretty close to economic ruin.Dimitrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-81652307839306184602011-05-30T03:14:52.672+03:002011-05-30T03:14:52.672+03:00Yes, cut the cord completely. It's time. If ...Yes, cut the cord completely. It's time. If they notice anything fishy entering Gaza, they can always bomb it, like they did the Syrian reactor.Carrienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-20985847656500838772011-05-30T02:15:09.648+03:002011-05-30T02:15:09.648+03:00Surely the opening of the border at Rafah will onl...Surely the opening of the border at Rafah will only benefit Israel if there is a corresponding closing of the border with Israel. From what I see Israel is managing to make a bad situation even worse. Not only is it still "occupying" Gaza without any of the attendent benefits of actually occupying Gaza, it is now "blockading" Gaza without actually having a blockade. <br /><br />Israel needs to make a decision, either cut the cord completely or go back in.<br /><br />DannyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-47831097142117882572011-05-30T00:23:31.103+03:002011-05-30T00:23:31.103+03:00Dimitry,
The occupation is already costing Israeli...Dimitry,<br />The occupation is already costing Israelis and it has an effect on Israel's economy. You think sending all those trucks into Gaza is free? You think all those soldiers protecting the settlements work for free? <br /><br />As usual, I am with Yaacov 110%. There will be violence but Israel can handle it and the long run Israel will be fine. I think this is also a good time to let all the humanitarian supplies for Gaza go through Egypt. Now that the border is open, there is no reason not to do it that way. Also, Hamas' tunnel business will be effected. This is also positive news.Carrienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-12249706706939665872011-05-29T23:56:34.979+03:002011-05-29T23:56:34.979+03:00Yaacov,
I don't believe that there's a si...Yaacov,<br /><br />I don't believe that there's a significant majority of Israelis that supports dismantling most of the settlements NOW.<br /><br />More important, I don't believe that there's even a significant MINORITY that would support dismantling most of the settlements now if it was made clear that we should also expect the sacrifices that you expect:(1) immediate missiles from the West Bank, (2)Israel will still be damned if and when it responds, (3) the attackers will back down for a while and (4) Palestinians will see what they have achieved as a step on the longer road to Israel's disappearance. (And of course it could lead to much worse.) <br /><br />Frankly, I am stunned and disappointed by your post. Maybe I shouldn't be. Your posts often made an implausible distinction between Jerusalem and the West Bank. And your previous posts made clear the dire consequences that would result from hitkansut. Now, you've made clear the life and death tradeoffs that you are now prepared to make. (And that I have difficulty even hearing.)<br /><br />On the other hand, your candor is welcome. If the consequences of the disengagement had been made clear to the Israeli public, I doubt that there would have been support for the disengagement. Your prognosis for hitkansut is even more grave. Taken together, everyone will understand how radical and dangerous your proposition is.Saul Liebermanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07399120227171316267noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-45564969298987476852011-05-29T23:48:00.422+03:002011-05-29T23:48:00.422+03:00The settlement project is a minority policy which ...<i>The settlement project is a minority policy which has been foisted upon the majority.</i><br /><br />Israel is a democracy, right? <br />so it have always been rightfully elected parliaments and/or governments who did it? right?<br /><br />if the majority has let the minority get away with it then it can not now wash its hands of it. It is as much its fault as maybe it has been the minorities skills.Silkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16383345395827271854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-11781050767677565692011-05-29T23:08:53.373+03:002011-05-29T23:08:53.373+03:00You're being facetious, Saul. There's a si...You're being facetious, Saul. There's a significant majority of Israelis that supports dismantling most of the settlements, and there has been for decades. The settlement project is a minority policy which has been foisted upon the majority. The unity of Jerusalem is another matter. I'm not certain it might not muster a majority in the case of a true end-of-conflict scenario, but I'm not certain it would, either.<br /><br />Someday the settlements will have to be outside Israel (dismantled or not) in order for the Palestinians to have a state, and for us to be rid of the occupation of them. There's no other option. On the other hand, the main claim that the Palestinians have to Jerusalem is that they really really really want it. On the ground, they could have an operable state even without it, tho. <br /><br />So those are the two big differences.Yaacovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-35547824062225577332011-05-29T22:53:41.153+03:002011-05-29T22:53:41.153+03:00Why not start by dividing Jerusalem? Sure, it will...Why not start by dividing Jerusalem? Sure, it will lead to violence, that's a given. But it's a much more efficient move than pulling out of everything but the settlement blocs.Saul Liebermanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07399120227171316267noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-28135463485082907552011-05-29T22:35:38.833+03:002011-05-29T22:35:38.833+03:00Dimitry -
Diving Jerusalem is supposed to be part...Dimitry -<br /><br />Diving Jerusalem is supposed to be part of the end of conflict moves, except that it won't be, and so shouldn't happen at all. Some form of unilateral disengagement is intended simply as an efficient move in an ongoing conflict. The fact that it won't create peace is a given, not a disappointment.Yaacovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-55899448882063442172011-05-29T22:15:49.240+03:002011-05-29T22:15:49.240+03:00Yaacov, I am not against the idea as such. I also ...Yaacov, I am not against the idea as such. I also think it'll happen in some form at some point. I'd say that puling the farflung settlments behind the barrier, while leaving miliary presence until some sort of solution is found to the rocket threat. Otherwise, as I said, I think it'll be a suicide in economical terms.<br /><br />P.S. I am interested in how you reconcile your opposition to the division of Jerusalme and support for such a plan? As far as I understand, you oppose the division of Jerusalem on the grounds that it'd lead to violence and almost certain war. Well, there is a very good chance that what you propose for the rest of the WB under current conditions would lead to violence and almost certain war with dire consequences (as I outlined in my previous comment). So, where is the major difference.Dimitrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-17732087011671517432011-05-29T20:29:44.926+03:002011-05-29T20:29:44.926+03:00Yaacov, you are also bolder than Sharon and Olmert...Yaacov, you are also bolder than Sharon and Olmert. They never acknowledged the ensuing violence that you are willing to accept as a certainty. I hope that your candor will help ensure that the hitkansut does not happen.Saul Liebermanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07399120227171316267noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-8623016342009143662011-05-29T20:26:49.677+03:002011-05-29T20:26:49.677+03:00Don't be so discouraged.
We can have Hitkansu...Don't be so discouraged.<br /><br />We can have Hitkansut AND destruction!!<br /><br />File under: Something for everyone!Barry Meislinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04795125774426217113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-20375750362640740322011-05-29T20:12:36.000+03:002011-05-29T20:12:36.000+03:00Dimitry -
Guilty as charged. I have been in favor...Dimitry -<br /><br />Guilty as charged. I have been in favor of some sort of Hitkansut since about 2003, three years before Olmert invented it, and I remain in favor of it today. It seems the least bad of all possible alternatives.Yaacovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.com