tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post7144640079904238590..comments2024-01-01T01:47:59.449+02:00Comments on Yaacov Lozowick's Ruminations: Roaming with Dror EtkesYaacovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-31832123444698346082010-08-03T22:19:43.640+03:002010-08-03T22:19:43.640+03:00I forgot to mention the fact that more and more m...I forgot to mention the fact that more and more motivated combat troops come from Yehuda and Shomron !<br />Explain them that they must uproot their own homes families and friends to achieve "peace" of the Grave...<br />The "smashing success" of Aza is a grand inspirational source for them...<br /><br />TrumpeldorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-47790505349241223522010-08-03T22:07:58.557+03:002010-08-03T22:07:58.557+03:00Thanks Brian for underlining the strategic depth o...Thanks Brian for underlining the strategic depth of Yehuda Shomron !<br />May I remind all the ME pundits that Yehuda Shomron is the shield protecting both Ben Gurion airport and Gush Dan which harbours main Israeli population centers and industries ?<br />Without that shield,Israel is doomed !<br />And there is no demographic arab time bomb ....<br />Therefore the conclusions are straightforward for many Israelis !<br />May I add that currently,most Israelis changed their minds about "settlers" and support them now ?<br />The recent census is available on many Israeli sites ....<br /><br /><br />TrumpeldorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-5206242968176735662010-08-02T00:42:24.473+03:002010-08-02T00:42:24.473+03:00If Dror and Totten dont support BDS, they are part...If Dror and Totten dont support BDS, they are part of the problemRabbi Tony Jutnernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-67627667858201252442010-08-01T17:22:26.642+03:002010-08-01T17:22:26.642+03:00AreaMan
come to think of it the settlement strate...AreaMan<br /><br />come to think of it the settlement strategy was used widely by the US-military in Germany, take a drive through "their" part of the country and look at all the housing complexes, schools, churches, hotels, restaurants, supermarkets you name it and most of it unaccessible to us Germans. And believe me not having access to the delights of the PX or the cafeterias etc. was loudly bemoaned by us. <br /><br />Also I have known quite a number of US-military-personnel who choose to stay on as civilians.<br /><br />The difference of course is and was that the "host"-country had no eliminatory plans on them and no matter how much we minded to be the designed battle field if the cold war should have ever become hot, we still thought we were better off with them than without them.<br /><br />Also we were smart enough to notice that US-occupied areas seemed to do a wee bit better than those which didn't have that luck. Don't you think Palestinians learning from our example might be a smarter move than insisting on identity-romantics? <br /><br />but of course this is only the private view of somebody who has spent much of her life in an area under occupation <br /><br />SilkeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-85041009785253992032010-08-01T17:04:21.112+03:002010-08-01T17:04:21.112+03:00AreaMan, read the book Accidental Empire to unders...AreaMan, read the book Accidental Empire to understand why exactly Israel set up settlements in the West Bank. It was a combination of two factors mainly. The first was after the Arab leaders refused to negotiate with Israel after the Six-Day War, Israel scrambled about what to do about the West Bank, Gaza, Golan, and Sinai, and eventually fell upon the pre-state solution of settling the land. The other issue was that religious Jews wanted to rebuild the Jewish communities of Hebron and other areas of religious and historical interest to Jews.Lee Ratnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08139895689217213860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-60077866497012264682010-08-01T16:29:21.362+03:002010-08-01T16:29:21.362+03:00AreaMan
I don't know if and when establishing...AreaMan<br /><br />I don't know if and when establishing settlements in contested border areas got out of fashion - in the history stuff I like to read it happened all the time - all those fortified castles of old housed families, did farming, were preferably located at strategically favourable spots etc. etc. Much better for lots of reasons to have settlements than just military outposts.<br /><br />And here is a more well reasoned than my "it's business as usual" take http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=801<br /><br />Fashions come and go and just because settlements "they" try to tell us seem to be "out" right now from what I read I conclude that variations of the tactic are still widely in use. But of course they are located elsewhere and seem except for maybe Tibet not to be as "exciting" as what Israel does.<br /><br />SilkeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-11137947691469441002010-08-01T06:48:45.581+03:002010-08-01T06:48:45.581+03:00Yaacov pointed it out earlier in this post:
http:...Yaacov pointed it out earlier in this post:<br /><br />http://yaacovlozowick.blogspot.com/2010/07/why-there-wont-be-peace-anytime-soon.html<br /><br />See that picture of Israel's financial capital from the West Bank? That's the interest Israel has in the West Bank. Without it, Israel is 9 miles wide, and those 9 miles are not easily defensible mountains. They are beachfront plains, and they are so densely populated that you could barely fit a Maginot Line-type defense there even if you wanted one. (But from that hill, a Maginot Line is useless anyway because enemy artillery could shoot right over it.) Moreover, from the top of the West Bank, Israeli radar can detect attacks coming from beyond even the Jordan valley. But from Tel Aviv, the earliest warning they could get of a coming attack would be when the tanks reach where that picture was taken.<br /><br />Judea and Samaria provide strategic depth, which means that they provide some room for error. If Israel is 40 miles wide, they can afford a mistake or two when an invading army rolls in. If Israel is 9 miles wide, they cannot afford a single mistake in times of war. And mistakes are always made in times of war.Bryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09099017972456573744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-74135261760849144412010-08-01T04:43:36.813+03:002010-08-01T04:43:36.813+03:00Question:
While we know what the settler families ...Question:<br />While we know what the settler families want, I have been unable to figure out what the Israeli government wants in the West Bank.<br /><br />The GOI must have had a strategic reason to want Israelis to move to Judea and Samaria. But I'm not sure what it can be. Other powers have, in the past, protected themselves with the Great Wall of China, the Distant Early Warning (DEW) radars, the Maginot Line, and so on. But Israel stakes out Zionist families? Is there a strategy here?AreaManhttp://stealtheoil.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-53217030000766724822010-07-31T01:53:57.806+03:002010-07-31T01:53:57.806+03:00Fantastic list of observations, its good to see ne...Fantastic list of observations, its good to see new thoughts coming out after years of all the same!<br /><br />And I'm glad you find Montana beautiful, Mr. Lozowick--I'm writing from Montana at this very moment!Christophernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-63818303332072279632010-07-30T21:33:59.593+03:002010-07-30T21:33:59.593+03:00SoccerDad, the essential problem of the peace proc...SoccerDad, the essential problem of the peace process has been that Israel has to have dealt with less than stellar leadership on the Palestinian and Arab side and the ability of extremists, especially on the Palestinian and Arab side, to gum up the process by an act of violence. <br /><br /> Since Palestinian and Arab leadership has been less than stellar, the Palestinians never had a leader capable of dishing out some hard truths to them or who have encouraged extreme hatred to maintain their own power and turn people away from their failings. This problem exists in other Arab and Muslim countries. Israel has more than a few leaders, academics, and whatever willing to tell harsh truths to the Israelis, making this problem not really existent on the Israeli side.Lee Ratnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08139895689217213860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-22628114717794100492010-07-30T20:42:42.353+03:002010-07-30T20:42:42.353+03:00Point 10 is very important. I remember reading a s...Point 10 is very important. I remember reading a story before the first "intifada" how a soda factory in Ramallah had an arrangement with the Yeshiva in Bet El for students to provide supervision for the soda to be marketed in Israel.<br /><br />I'm sure that program didn't last long. The notion that the PLO was the sole legitimate representatives of the Palestian people ensured that no such coexistence would be possible. Coexistence would be defined by what the PLO demanded (a top down approach) rather than by what (some) Palestinians may have wanted. This (I think) actually set back real peace (or coexistence) for the sake of a "misnamed peace process."<br /><br />I could be wrong but when I was in Yeshiva in the early 80's I got the impression that it wasn't unusual for Jews living in Yehuda and Shomron to have Arab friends.<br /><br />So one effect of the peace process had been (for better or worse) to push the peoples apart.Soccer Dadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16142724823098073038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-10403302611572209622010-07-30T20:03:48.303+03:002010-07-30T20:03:48.303+03:00To be honest, the trigger-happy first-person shoot...To be honest, the trigger-happy first-person shooters are a little more en vogue right now (not at this exact second, because Starcraft II just came out after 6 years of waiting, so everyone and his mother in the computer gaming world is playing it), so I don't predict any mass waves of teenagers who are good at strategy but lack knowledge of the basic realities of war (even simulated war). But kids--as far as I can tell--are no longer playing war games with their friends in the back yard or the park in large numebrs, and that is unfortunate.Bryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09099017972456573744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-1652536685655152932010-07-30T18:59:47.137+03:002010-07-30T18:59:47.137+03:00thanks Bryan
is it old age or is there some truth...thanks Bryan<br /><br />is it old age or is there some truth in my guessing that overall grand strategy today is so en vogue that it is marginalizing the tin-soldier-perspective a bit?<br /><br />I'm asking because that's how the McKinsey et al guys came across to us ol' hands ... and never mind that I was in a group which was salivating for getting its stuff from old tree into clickable and typo proof (and how the eco-geeks seem to have operated claiming that models based on 5 years of history would predict the future - that's unjust to the geeks, I'm sure they told the traders what kind of tool they were given, but then some buts and never minds set in and took over)<br /><br />have you come across these guys http://www.thehistorynetwork.org/TheHistoryNetwork/The_History_Network.html<br />especially their Ancient Warfare discussions fascinate me, how much, all that re-enacting notwithstanding, we do not know yet, but once one is into strategy one may of course forget about all that ;-)<br /><br />Of course an overall framework is necessary or you'll jump from project to project (like McKinsey seemed to make our management do, the overall strategy there seemed to be as long as it's new it must be great)<br /><br />let's hope that in the military the more earthy types retain enough clout to keep the grand strategists aware of real life's obstacles and pitfalls.<br /><br />Silke<br />(sorry I grew up as the kid of a very severely injured man and so I can't stop thinking from the perspective of kids having to cope with it today)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-3247046857302233702010-07-30T18:12:48.528+03:002010-07-30T18:12:48.528+03:00Silke, not all computer games are about hand-to-ha...Silke, not all computer games are about hand-to-hand combat or even individuals using other weapons. Pardon the geek jargon, but real-time strategy games (like Starcraft, which is obviously science fiction, or Command and Conquer, which is more "realistic") can teach kids good lessons about strategy, but less about tactics.<br /><br />Playing soldiers in the back yard might teach you how to bend around obstacles and sneak around properly, but real-time strategy games are more about grand strategies: whether to use fast, mobile units at the expense of defense, or whether to sit and defend yourself until you have overpowering firepower, whether to expand to get more resources (and spend more resources defending a larger area) or whether to turtle with the resources you were given. And, of course, how to react to certain types of attacks and to counterattack effectively.<br /><br />In some respects, they do teach lessons that would be harder to teach kids who wouldn't otherwise come up with grand strategies on their own. And in other respects, they're time-wasting and not at all educational. But you know, you win some, you lose some. (And obviously the trigger-happy first-person shooters like Halo or Counterstrike don't really teach any valuable tactics or strategy, so not all games are created equal.)Bryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09099017972456573744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-66519876370090361722010-07-30T18:02:54.640+03:002010-07-30T18:02:54.640+03:00yes, Yaacov,
it was Churchill on WW1 (I'm sti...yes, Yaacov,<br /><br />it was Churchill on WW1 (I'm still stuck in volume 1 of WW2)<br /><br />what I keep in mind most is how often Roumania switched allies - what a mess! - and how depraved Wilson (at least initially) considered Europeans to be who had played along in that game.<br /><br />computer games <br />- I thought of that, but isn't that mostly about hand to hand combat? while the tin-soldier-stories in novels claim that the kids knew all about the real life geography where the actual battle took place i.e. when there was a swamp they had to watch out for it, likewise if there was a rock etc.<br /><br />maybe knowledge about hand to hand combat is in times of urban warfare more important than knowledge of geography ... I'd stick to geography though with lay-out of houses typical of this or that area added to it.<br /><br />SilkeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-35321721032551036942010-07-30T17:41:46.720+03:002010-07-30T17:41:46.720+03:00Silke -
Churchill, I assume.
Computer games have...Silke -<br /><br />Churchill, I assume.<br /><br />Computer games have replaced the tin soldiers, for better or worse.Yaacovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-72656523851533082792010-07-30T17:37:07.115+03:002010-07-30T17:37:07.115+03:00Lee and Bryan
looking at stuff they did before us...Lee and Bryan<br /><br />looking at stuff they did before us is very instructive in showing us how real people behave instead of purely fantasized ones but it by necessity, no matter how detailed, leaves always out huge parts. Just try to write up one hour of your day in all its aspects and implications including public opinion, the Zeitgeist, the dominating fashion, the weather, your digestion, the look your colleague just gave you, what all other parties having an impact on your life in this one hour were up to etc etc etc.<br /><br />I doubt that a 1000 pages would even begin to do it justice. <br /><br />The most detailed history book I have read covers in its core about 6 years, runs to about 4000 pages and made me realize for the first time what a limited picture these 500 pages tomes for the same period had given me. it was quite a humbling experience of the kind of "I know that I know nothing" and it made me forever read the 500 pages ones with the grain of salt they deserve i.e. I am reading a hopefully decent and serious historian take on an extended and complicated period giving me one view of it which is by necessity tinted by his doing the selecting of what's relevant and what's not. (question: in novels I've been told again and again that at some time boys used to re-enact battles with the help of tin-soldiers, how do kids get made familiar with strategic necessities of war these days?)<br /><br />So no matter how sophisticated and learned a what-if is presented, it remains a what-if and that's it. I am not much into science-fiction but I remember having read some very convincing what-if thought experiments about time travel i.e. what a simple step off the path may trigger in the far future. I don't know if the story about the butterfly wing and the hurricane is true science but in history it certainly is. A cough by one misinterpreted by another may change things ever so slightly, lead to basic trust or distrust and voilà, there we go.<br /><br />What about all these stories about the people meeting their future spouses by chance? how about your practicing a bit of what-iffery around those stories ... ;-)<br /><br />History is hugely influenced by people <br />and what do you know what the pitfalls of this or that agreement might have turned out to be.<br /><br />Today is today and it offers enough problems of its own, looking to the past to see how they dealt with similar problems then may get the little grey cells into efficient operating mood but moaning about spilled milk won't.<br /><br />Take Miss Marple who is forever reminded of something but is at the same time the keenest observer of present goings on and draws her conclusions exclusively from them.<br /><br />SilkeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-5585430555416706092010-07-30T16:53:44.082+03:002010-07-30T16:53:44.082+03:00Lee: Even if the Arab states refused to naturalize...Lee: Even if the Arab states refused to naturalize the Palestinians, they would be only a rhetorical problem for Israel, not a practical one. Besides, the Arabs already keep the Palestinians disenfranchised and in camps. How would having more of them substantially change their rhetorical position?<br /><br />But as I don't think there's any kind of real threat of a "one-state solution" being imposed in the near future (unless the Palestinians decide that the "two-state peace process" isn't profitable enough), it's all academic anyway.<br /><br />I agree with you about the Faisal-Weizmann agreement. Even if the Arab state collapsed in infighting, the Jews still would've been off to a better start.Bryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09099017972456573744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-87562750216557494722010-07-30T16:26:38.671+03:002010-07-30T16:26:38.671+03:00Silke- I don't think that its really engagin i...Silke- I don't think that its really engagin in What-If history to argue that the nascent IDF and Israeli governments could have seized the entire Palestine Mandate if it wanted to. Many historians believe that it was possible including Benny Morris. There were people pressing Ben-Gurion to go for the final push. At the very least they should have gone for all of Jerusalem. <br /><br /> Now what would happen if Israel took control over the entire Mandate is open to question but it would have been very different and most likely better for Israel. In the 1948 borders, the Arabs could convince themselves that Israel could be eliminated by just one more war, just one more push. If Israel's borders were the same as the Mandate's borders than the 1948 settlement would look more permanent even in the eyes of the most fanatic anti-Zionist. The population transfer would have been more like that between India and Pakistan or Greece and Turkey than what happened probably. <br /><br /> What I'm really disappointed is that the French and British interfered with the Faisal-Weizzmann agreement. That would have created a Jewish state about the size of Taiwan and let the Arabs free to develop without enduring colonialism. It could have worked.Lee Ratnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08139895689217213860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-45241413547929302912010-07-30T15:13:03.198+03:002010-07-30T15:13:03.198+03:00RK
You seem to be missing an important point. Is...RK <br /><br />You seem to be missing an important point. Israel's left -such as they still exist- are a legitimate and honorable part of the Israeli politic. Israel's radical left, on the other hand, a tiny group of a few thousands at most but with a media imprint the size of a continent, includes people who are in the enemy camp. They don't use military weapons, but they're still the enemy. Since we're a democracy they may say whatever they say, but the rest of us don't need to respect them for it.<br /><br />Yisrael - I assure you Michael Totten is scheduled to meet settlers, too, and lots of others people with diverse viewpoints. I expect his reports from Israel will reflect a broad spectrum of perspectives - in and of itself more than much of the media offers.<br /><br />Victor - We drove in an arc from Jerusalem down to Midi'in Illit, then up by Beit Arye then Peduel and Bruchin to Ariel, east towards Eli, around Maaleh Levona then south via Migron to Jerusalem. Much of this, however, not on the usual roads.Yaacovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-61097480023977048322010-07-30T14:04:14.734+03:002010-07-30T14:04:14.734+03:00Lee
I was deeply impressed by your what-iffing th...Lee<br /><br />I was deeply impressed by your what-iffing the history of 1948. <br /><br />In my book any what-ifer of history is into delusions (never mind if his book is praised, it's idiocy and that's it). <br /><br />Remember what you'll see 10 miles on, if you move one of two parallels by just the tiniest nudge? And that is a fact of real life. <br /><br />Yes Victor I've used that image over and over again and I'll continue to do so until somebody gives me a better one to illustrate the idiocy of the what-if-historians or wanna-be what-if historians.<br /><br />But in this case, after Lee has shown him/herself to be a first class what-iffer he/she goes on to predict in the same super-sophisticated style the future and evidently wants to be taken seriously.<br /><br />btw I award top price on this thread to Sylvia's "missile just hit ..."<br /><br />ages ago there was a bestseller describing women who loved too much and consequently believed the promises of abusers of all colours to reform over and over again. <br />there is bestseller psycho writer Watzlawick's disdain for "more of the same"<br />etc etc - but of course politics should never resort to taking real life's well-established facts into account. ;-)<br /><br />As to settlements: <br />why do I read again and again that states with contested borders have resorted all through the millenia to keeping settlements in those regions? Let's say you remove a settlement and then it should prove necessary for military reasons to establish a permanent outpost there? What would have been gained? (if that's a dumb question I apologize but only if the military tells me so)<br /><br />Silke<br /><br />PS:<br />I find it depressing that Dror as described by Yaacov didn't impress me - overlapping positions notwithstanding because: remember what a nudge does to a perfect parallelAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-63294174088867413232010-07-30T13:36:16.764+03:002010-07-30T13:36:16.764+03:00Fair enough point Victor. What I really do not get...Fair enough point Victor. What I really do not get are the people who propose creating a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza and decreasing if not eliminating the Jewish nature of Israel at the same time. It really defeats the purpose of a two-state solution. If the Jewish nature of Israel proper has to be eliminated, you might as well go for the one-state solution.<br /><br /> Bryan, population transfers only work when another state takes the population you get rid of. One of the reasons why the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is still an issue is because the Arab states made a choice not to grant citizenship to the Arabs that were transferred in the various wars, especially the War of Independence. If the Arabs that left Israel in 1948 got citizenship in the states they settled in, we wouldn't have as many problems.Lee Ratnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08139895689217213860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-2794508150699323772010-07-30T12:24:37.985+03:002010-07-30T12:24:37.985+03:00Thanks for the mention.
However, since I have act...Thanks for the mention.<br /><br />However, since I have actually debated Dror, and have pressed him and tested his knowledge and perspective and outlook and other aspects, - and since I do not agree with you and him on the necessity of removal of communities - I think I have a better grasp of darling Dror. I would hope that he has a similar appreciation of my person as you do of his and can make a differentiation between someone being an overall nice guy and a person who wishes me and my friends ignominy.YMedadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14333122797414935958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-5226430639695574882010-07-30T11:44:43.013+03:002010-07-30T11:44:43.013+03:00Tell you what. Since I say the same things over an...Tell you what. Since I say the same things over and over again, just disregard me. Skip me. <br /><br />No sweat. No big deal.Barry Meislinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04795125774426217113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-62648432478358271682010-07-30T10:59:38.403+03:002010-07-30T10:59:38.403+03:00RK,
Does improving life and increasing self-rule ...RK,<br /><br />Does improving life and increasing self-rule for Palestinians result in an increase in security for Jews, or the opposite? You make it sound so clear cut.<br /><br />As for Lee, Barry, NormanF, we have the same conversations over and over again. I can argue each one of your points forwards and backwards by now. All we're doing is retrenching; there's no real shuffling of chairs. Let's have a rule to avoid recycling the same arguments over and over again, at least to each other.Avigdorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05008730229882004376noreply@blogger.com