tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post1413325643640684929..comments2024-01-01T01:47:59.449+02:00Comments on Yaacov Lozowick's Ruminations: Demographics and the Long-Term Israeli VictoryYaacovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-80187718468814615002011-05-25T20:15:53.278+03:002011-05-25T20:15:53.278+03:00http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=22...http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=222196<br /><br />There are so many perceptions that deserve to be challenged. Here's a story that challenges a number if them all at once.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-64886233803366459572011-05-25T16:14:07.726+03:002011-05-25T16:14:07.726+03:00Without a change in Islam and in the Arab/Iranian ...Without a change in Islam and in the Arab/Iranian mind, the Arab World and Iran are set to disappear.<br /><br />Right now, they have a window to fix their problems. But if they continue to wallow in hatred of the Jews and Israel, that window will close and they will be doomed.<br /><br />The problem is the kind of change the Arab World and Iran needs is precisely the change they have or are turning their backs to.NormanFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-80502668224886223382011-05-25T12:41:44.743+03:002011-05-25T12:41:44.743+03:00It would be very nice if it came to pass. However,...It would be very nice if it came to pass. However, I'm wondering where 24 million people will fit into a country the size of Israel. The last third of the article which describes the fate of Egypt and Syria seems the most realisitc appraisal.<br /><br />PavelAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-12754845542986492122011-05-25T05:51:45.931+03:002011-05-25T05:51:45.931+03:00Anonymous 4:10,
I believe the author was saying t...Anonymous 4:10,<br /><br />I believe the author was saying that, in absolute terms, "secular" Israelis currently account for the largest percentage of the population, and thus even though they have fewer children per couple, secular children are the largest section of today's birth cohorts just by virtue of there being more secular parents.<br /><br />Note that the secular birthrate is 2.6, and the Haredi one is 7.5, but the average for everyone is 3. Logically, the secular sector must be significantly larger than the Haredi sector, or otherwise the average would be closer to 5 or 6.<br /><br />In absolute terms, secular parents as a group are bringing more babies into the world than Haredi parents as a group. In relative terms, the Haredim are having far more children per couple. Different ways of describing who has the most kids.Bryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09099017972456573744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-90755375232402752512011-05-24T22:20:01.776+03:002011-05-24T22:20:01.776+03:00The author of the Asia Times article is an economi...The author of the Asia Times article is an economist named David P Goldman<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_P._Goldmanthe_raptorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07820705759055167866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-9147603724404463752011-05-24T20:16:59.514+03:002011-05-24T20:16:59.514+03:00Europe is on its demographic deathbed.
The next c...Europe is on its demographic deathbed.<br /><br />The next century may well be the Jewish Century.NormanFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-90554239431491235302011-05-24T19:11:38.329+03:002011-05-24T19:11:38.329+03:00A Nietzschean analysis from the Asia Times that sh...A Nietzschean analysis from the Asia Times that shows Jews, not Germans, to the healthy ones. Wow!<br /><br />EdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-44393399103665715192011-05-24T19:01:02.364+03:002011-05-24T19:01:02.364+03:00"Israel's success is a horrible reminder ..."Israel's success is a horrible reminder of European failure; its bumptious nationalism grates against Europe's determination to forget its own ugly embrace of nationalism; and its implicitly religious raison d'etre provokes post-Christian rage. Above all, it offends Europe that Israel brims with life."<br /><br />How could these claims possibly be substantiated? It's notable that the author doesn't even try to provide evidence; he just asserts. <br /><br />"This, I believe, explains the implacable hostility of Israel's neighbors, as well as the Europeans." <br /><br />How confident he is in his powers of psychological analysis! Contrary to the ressentiment thesis that Israelis seems so fond of telling themselves (much like the American ressentiment thesis that they hate us for our freedoms), many of the Arabs in the region I've spoken tend to speak admiringly of Israel's technological and economic accomplishments. They dislike Israel in spite of that admiration, not because of their jealousy.<br /><br />As for the general demographic argument, I think the history of demographic predictions indicates the follow of attempting to project demographic trends very far into the future. It's certainly an interesting hypothetical, but to take such an arrogantly confident tone belies a complete lack of humility.<br /><br />RuknAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-61692081457051245402011-05-24T17:14:22.751+03:002011-05-24T17:14:22.751+03:00Within a century, Israel will be a more Jewish and...Within a century, Israel will be a more Jewish and religious country. It will be closer to the ideals of religious Zionism than secular nationalism.<br /><br />This trend will make the State increasingly compatible with Haredi Jewish beliefs and transform their attitude from ambivalence to the Israeli state to one of confirmed loyalty to it.<br /><br />Observant Jews increasingly participate in modern life and they serve in the IDF.<br /><br />The bottom line is the Jewish future looks assured.NormanFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-59713204895664074332011-05-24T17:05:41.207+03:002011-05-24T17:05:41.207+03:00If 18 million of those are Jews, more Jews will li...If 18 million of those are Jews, more Jews will live in Israel than at any time in history. The Arabs will probably be around 400 million by the end of the century but a country's power is not measured by the strength of its army or its prosperity but by its spiritual attachment and the happiness of its people.<br /><br />Israel will thrive, grow and prosper even in the absence of peace while the Arabs will stagnate, decline and die. That is unless there is a revolution in the Arab outlook.<br /><br />I don't expect it to happen by the 22nd Century.NormanFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-23582699529026783862011-05-24T16:44:48.200+03:002011-05-24T16:44:48.200+03:00Assuming that things would remain the same for a 1...Assuming that things would remain the same for a 100 years is absurd.Michanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-50063879471620676732011-05-24T16:10:01.779+03:002011-05-24T16:10:01.779+03:00I don't get this line:
"Most of Israel...I don't get this line:<br />"Most of Israel's population increase comes from so-called "secular" Israelis, who have 2.6 children on average, more than any other people in the industrial world. The ultra-Orthodox have seven or eight, bringing total fertility to three children."<br /><br />How can most of the increase be coming from the seculars and the ultra-Orthodox at the same time? And if the ultra-Orthodox increase is going to be so big, how will that help Israel's standing military when they don't even join it and just use up welfare?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-14680098535602025212011-05-24T16:01:12.298+03:002011-05-24T16:01:12.298+03:00does he mention that employers all over the world ...does he mention that employers all over the world are likely to compete to hire those young Israelis? possibly even at the price of having to establish subsidiaries in Israel?<br /><br />Who is standing in line to hire your neighbour's youngsters whose countries have tainted even the reputations of the best of them via their promotion and/or wink-wink towards jihad?<br /><br />SilkeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com