tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post3217700511610265366..comments2024-01-01T01:47:59.449+02:00Comments on Yaacov Lozowick's Ruminations: Peace Impossible; Progress NeededYaacovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-14433355293221074092011-04-29T21:36:08.827+03:002011-04-29T21:36:08.827+03:00further to Benjamin Schwartz - he gives in the pie...further to Benjamin Schwartz - he gives in the piece a plausible (to me) explanation why Sharon vacated Gaza.<br /><br />as best I know that is not something the "hard-right" would admit.Silkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16383345395827271854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-82650121907466915292011-04-29T18:58:17.971+03:002011-04-29T18:58:17.971+03:00Yaacov- I must disagree with you.
Don't forget...Yaacov- I must disagree with you.<br />Don't forget that to become a "high-ranking military expert" in Israel, you pretty much have to be vetted for having the "correct" (i.e. Leftist) political views. Amidror is an exception. I would be interested in hearing Boogey Ya'alon's position. I have heard many "lower level" security people who are in the know say the settlements ARE a security asset.<br />I have personally heard from people in YESHA that the IDF is VERY supportive of settlement IN THE MOUNTAIN AREA and have been active in supporting the setting up of many outposts, precisely for that reason.Y. Ben-Davidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-30304994467863611952011-04-29T18:35:13.595+03:002011-04-29T18:35:13.595+03:00Benjamin Schwartz didn't strike me as hard-rig...Benjamin Schwartz didn't strike me as hard-right.<br /><br />As to stages: a taxi driver once told me that if he was in a hurry and the customer paid well he would approach a crossing where the other car had preference at high speed and if he saw the other car dip ever so lightly down in front he knew the other guy had the foot on his brake and so knew who could keep going safely.Silkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16383345395827271854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-54983589294216428092011-04-29T15:54:08.427+03:002011-04-29T15:54:08.427+03:00Victor, Ben David and Silke -
None of Israel'...Victor, Ben David and Silke -<br /><br />None of Israel's generals have been of the position that the settlements are a security asset, for decades. There is no unanimity on the question of how important an Israeli presence on the West Bank is, for that matter: There seems to be something of a broad agreement that there needs to be an Israeli military presence in the Jordan Valley, tho Netanyahu recently implied this might be possible even with Palestinian sovereignty, since the IDF presence there isn't directed against the Palestinians anyway. The demand for an IDF presence in the heavily populated central hills of the West Bank, however, is not regarded as essential by most of the security establishment, if an agreement could somehow be reached. The idea that the settlements have military value, however, has long since been laid to rest and is used by no-one except some strands of the hard right.<br /><br />Anyway, if you read what I wrote, I was advocating a series of stages, the relinquishing of military control on the West Bank being near the end.Yaacovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-74924809273244104692011-04-29T14:58:45.774+03:002011-04-29T14:58:45.774+03:00Victor
since I first read it I am waiting for a h...Victor<br /><br />since I first read it I am waiting for a high ranking military to tell me that it is nonsense. I haven't had the tiniest glimpse of it except for that one piece by van Creveld which Yaacov had posted and which didn't strike me as all that convincing when compared and measured against what veterans and/or historians tell me at the Pritzker Military Library. They all emphasize the importance of terrain, even those who are clearly enthusiastic about the possibilities drones offer (Bing West in his last appearance at the library)<br /><br />The ancients who had to live with similarly unruly neighbors as Israel used to establish "settlements" beyond there "secured" borders - maybe we are to "modern" for all that but since we are not too modern to pay tribute (re-named aid these days) as they did, I want to know why one part is obsolete and the other is not. (just like in Sugar is bad for you but Honey is not ;D)Silkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16383345395827271854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-22351072234890706082011-04-29T14:39:28.756+03:002011-04-29T14:39:28.756+03:00All settlements are a strategic asset. They restri...All settlements are a strategic asset. They restrict the area that terrorists can operate and they keep an extensive road network open which the IDF can use to move troops around, particularly from the coast to the east frontier areas. The number of troops needed for direct security is pretty small and civilian contractors today provide a considerable amount of the security in the settlements.<br />This, of course, is in addition to the important role of proving to the Arabs that Israel is here to stay. The Arabs interpret a willingness by Israel to give up the Biblical heartland of the country, full of ancient memories for the Jewish people as a rootlessness that encourages them to keep up the pressure on Israel, no matter now "nice" Israel may think it is in giving up these settlements. No Arab would voluntarily ever give up his holy places and they think that if the Jews are willing to do so, they are nothing but a bunch of nihilistic weaklings.Y. Ben-Davidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-14477434871001623552011-04-29T13:58:55.038+03:002011-04-29T13:58:55.038+03:00Silke, that american interest piece is excellent. ...Silke, that american interest piece is excellent. I seem to remember reading it last year, but this was a much-needed refresher. Yaacov, be sure to check it out if you haven't already.<br /><br />Ariel Sharon's book "Warrior", which is discussed in the article, is on it's way to me. If he goes into such explicit strategy in his memoirs, then I'm supremely pumped to read it.Avigdorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05008730229882004376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-22132123868234508022011-04-29T11:42:18.851+03:002011-04-29T11:42:18.851+03:00what about intelligence?
don't I remember fro...what about intelligence?<br /><br />don't I remember from Yaacov's book that intelligence was a lot better (for Israel) before Israel left large areas of the West-Bank?<br /><br />If the far out settlements will be gone will they not have to be replaced by IDF-observation units?<br /><br />I heard one lecture where somebody convinced me that actual intimate knowledge of the ground, of its bumps and structure cannot be gleaned from drones, it has to have been marched on. The ground after provides not only 3D but lots of other additional info.<br /><br />Jeffrey Goldberg has a post where the moral ones are moaning with respect to drone strikes on Libya that drones are the weapons of the rich against the poor and come at too low a cost for those who use them. It is carefully worded for once but it smells to me of something familiar nonetheless i.e. they want quid pro quo so they can sleep with a better conscience.<br /><br />Am I totally wrong in suspecting that far out settlements are not only a burden but an asset also? i.e. has this man a point or not? and if not, where is the high-ranking military who says so?<br /><br />http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=801Silkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16383345395827271854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-79902434481356770512011-04-29T09:28:54.245+03:002011-04-29T09:28:54.245+03:00Israel will never be allowed to un-occupy the West...Israel will never be allowed to un-occupy the West Bank. It's far too useful a tool to let go of. Every day, Israel is denounced for occupying the West Bank and Gaza as though Oslo and the Gaza pullout had never happened. If Israel follows Yaacov's plan to the letter, all that will change is Arab rejoicing: we got them on the run! can't last long now! Allahu akhbar!<br /><br />Yaacov, you are still expecting a rational response from the Western powers, if not the Palestinians. It's not going to happen. You have to accept that. Every day I hear Leftists accuse Israel of occupying the West Bank and Gaza as if the last 18 years had never happened. It's the Big Lie, and it's working.the_raptorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07820705759055167866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-64548181819170442592011-04-29T04:41:14.340+03:002011-04-29T04:41:14.340+03:00I broadly agree with the aims of your post Yaacov....I broadly agree with the aims of your post Yaacov.<br /><br /><br />I have always thought it was stupid to invest money in The West Bank since at some point the settlements will be dismantled.<br /><br />Where I would disagree is the notion that Israel should abandon the West Bank completely.<br /><br /><br />Yes, take down most of the settlements deep in the West Bank but do not withdraw the military just yet. This was the mistake Sharon made in Gaza.<br /><br />As long as Hamas is a player in Palestinian society Israel needs to be careful lest they would take power on the West Bank also. <br /><br /><br />By leaving the settlements Israel will not only signal to its citizens and friends abroad (I don't much care what the Jew baiters and haters think) that it does not intend to keep the land. <br /><br />It's not an occupation if you are there only to protect yourself.<br /><br /><br />Once the Palestinians show in practice that they accept Israel and will not endorse violence against Jews, Israel will then be able to withdraw its military also.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-18301672443819996402011-04-28T16:15:32.192+03:002011-04-28T16:15:32.192+03:00after having slept a night on it I'd summarize...after having slept a night on it I'd summarize this morning my take so:<br /><br />I am all for Israel taking the lead in opinion shaping/ action whatever i.e. what I guess is called playing offence in English and "die Initiative ergreifen" (grabbing the initiative) in German<br /><br />but I am all against offering anything without very generous compensation and by that I mean things beyond words, resolutions, guarantees, slips of paper etc etc<br /><br />Reminder: <br />I am of the above opinion not based on any knowledge of country and or circumstances but wholly based on comparing the situation with everyday experiences i.e. like Miss Marple would. <br /><br />My justification for it is that I have witnessed from up-close that states (in minor matters) react just like everybody's neighbour does.<br /><br /> ... and I think all this talk that one needs to have a deep understanding of the Middle East and its soul and culture and psychologial specialities like that Egyptian woman recently claimed at Jon Stewart is utter nonsense. The few sensibilities which need respecting can easily be figured out and remembered by even the dumbest. <br /><br />Closely observing the goings on in any rivalries in a club or a village will teach you just as much, the rest is pretentious posturing which when used as assault of course alas demands/requires countermeasures on all levels from even the most sober minded on earth.Silkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16383345395827271854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-61878139866197255552011-04-28T09:06:46.231+03:002011-04-28T09:06:46.231+03:00The whole point of a state of Israel is that Jews ...The whole point of a state of Israel is that Jews cannot rely on others for protection. I think the history of the state has shown that to be correct. One only has to look at UNIFIL to see what the model would be for a Western "guarantee". I think it is unreasonable to ask Westerners to die for a cause they really have no strategic interest in. As for the idea it will lessen international pressure, did Oslo lessen international pressure? Did pulling out of Gaza? Did Israel have international support after it pulled out of Lebanon? Has easing restrictions on the West Bank eased restrictions?<br /><br />I can't imagine how a "Unilateral pullout 3", will be anything except a vote loser in Israel.<br /><br />Personally i would rather state if the PA is going to be antagonistic then so is Israel. State the economic links to "independent" Palestine will be cut, all security consultation will be. I would also make an annoucement saying that Israel wishes to accelerate the cut in US aid to zero, maybe in the next 2-5 years.<br /><br />DannyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-45485568251299084272011-04-28T07:33:27.242+03:002011-04-28T07:33:27.242+03:00Destroying settlements or even freezing them prove...Destroying settlements or even freezing them proves to the Arabs that Israel has no staying power and that if Israel is willing to give up the settlements, it will eventually give up Tel Aviv as well, it is just a matter of time. Giving up the settlements in Gush Katif did NOT make Israel any more popular, and the delegitimization campaign ACCELERATED after it, and that would be the case with Yaacov's plan as well. Non-Jewish friends of Israel can not understand these things, they will say "why should I stick my neck out for them if they are going to capitulate unilaterally anyway?".<br />Giving up ANY settlements is national suicide, and history has amply proven this.Y. Ben-Davidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-14194122761924430572011-04-28T07:04:27.891+03:002011-04-28T07:04:27.891+03:00Excellent post. I hope there are mainstream politi...Excellent post. I hope there are mainstream politicians in both Israel and the U.S. who have reached a similar conclusion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-46061749749053883642011-04-27T23:48:23.145+03:002011-04-27T23:48:23.145+03:00Yaacov, I like reading your blog and usually find ...Yaacov, I like reading your blog and usually find your comments well written and insightful, Alas this time I just fail to follow the logic. It feels like there is a gap, as similar effort yielded entirely different results on all account. <br /><br />It could be my current inability to understand the dynamics difference of Palestine as a state. so let's leave it for now.<br /><br />The main question for you is. <br />Shouldn't the risk be factored in as well ? Assuming you are wrong, once Palestine is recognized there is no going back. <br />All the International law advantages since San Remo that Israel enjoys will be erased, which will render Israel on the weaker side of future negotiations and Tel-Aviv, the financial, center at a missile range. without any Undo button nor any substantial benefits.<br /><br />A leap of faith that if proven wrong may prove fatal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-47680528188284342312011-04-27T23:22:12.514+03:002011-04-27T23:22:12.514+03:00since you seem to want brainstorming - here is ano...since you seem to want brainstorming - here is another one:<br /><br />the ancients secured peace treaties by demanding an getting hostages. In today's PC climate probably not doable any longer but how about issuing powers of attorney for bank accounts i.e. that nothing can be done with those bank accounts without a second i.e. Israeli signature and no quid pro quo of course. <br /><br />The bank accounts could probably be established in Switzerland. In case "they" ridicule the letter of the treaty Israel on top of its blocking payment rights is entitled to draw compensation for the cost of the investigation, the cost of protective measures necessitated and so on and so on. <br /><br />I can go on with scenarios like that for hours provided I can tolerate this creeping sense of entering the realm of delusion.Silkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16383345395827271854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-77467093701586419072011-04-27T22:28:12.114+03:002011-04-27T22:28:12.114+03:00On one hand you want to entrust NATO and the U.S.
...On one hand you want to entrust NATO and the U.S.<br />with assurances and on the other hand you (rightfully) accuse them of being unable/unwilling to live up to agreements if things get too messy. <br />I'm with bacci40. By playing into the myth of Palestine we have already placed our heads in the lion's mouth or up our proverbial you-know-what.<br /><br />How's about the U.S. makes a deal with the Hashemites in Jordan to establish a semi-sovereign "Palestine" within their ample borders in exchange for holding on to their sovereignty? NATO troops can be stationed there as a peacekeeping force. See how that flies...Yehuditnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-11971513540934489142011-04-27T22:10:04.230+03:002011-04-27T22:10:04.230+03:00palestine and the palestinian are a myth
and maki...palestine and the palestinian are a myth<br /><br />and making the west bank judenfrei wont make that myth a reality<br /><br />and on may 15, when those mythological people begin the third intifada, the myth ends forever<br /><br />and they already have a nation...its called jordan...and they can all move anytime they likeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-65884846155084919142011-04-27T22:09:47.583+03:002011-04-27T22:09:47.583+03:00just imagine for a moment it would have been Israe...just imagine for a moment it would have been Israelis who mis-shot and the injured had been Arabs:<br /><br />http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,759224,00.html#ref=nlint<br /><br />and also from der Spiegel another tale from the oh so talented Juliane von Mittelstädt, actually a puff piece about the West-Bank which convinced me via implication that the only reason Palestinians haven't long out-classed Israel economy-wise are those check-points.<br /><br />http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,759046,00.html#ref=nlint<br /><br />That's what those who believe that taking sides is a bad thing get fed day in day out and that is going to stop if Israel insists that Palestinians behave like responsible citizens of a decent state and start by diminishing settlements?<br /><br />If I were a Palestinian I would start to whine with each demand coming my way and would it be only to obey a red traffic light.Silkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16383345395827271854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-37356978285171227472011-04-27T21:07:52.867+03:002011-04-27T21:07:52.867+03:00No Saul, that's not it, rather it's more d...No Saul, that's not it, rather it's more differentiated. The broad parts of the world who couldn't give a damn what we say or do, will continue not to give a damn what we say or do. I'm suggesting we take seriously only those who fundamentally support us, but are having a hard time with the fundamental imbalance where the Palestinians live under Israeli occupation or something like it. <br /><br />Even then, I only suggest ending the occupation when, and to the extent, that we safely can. As I suggest, however, there are lots of intermediate options, such as preparing and then dismantling settlements, without yet yielding military control. I'm also suggesting turning the dynamic on its head: we should stop explaining how our specific actions are defensible even when the fundamental one of occupation isn't, and instead demonstrate that we want to end the occupation; we're taking serious and painful measures towards that goal; now the world has to figure out how we can do so without another major war - which is what will happen if we retreat and are followed by violence.<br /><br />Let the other sides (all of them) sweat, not us.<br /><br /> At the moment we're doing the opposite: we're making it look as if we haven't yet made up our mind about so-called Greater Israel; and that we're fundamentally in favor of subjugating the Palestinians.Yaacovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-38557679243433596912011-04-27T21:07:06.416+03:002011-04-27T21:07:06.416+03:00Maybe the settlers are making Israel more vulnerab...Maybe the settlers are making Israel more vulnerable than they would otherwise be but as to lots and lots being better of, I'd like to hear the people of Sderot first. <br /><br />Anyway why budge on anything without getting something in return. I recently heard a talk with an American retired hostage negotiator. He stressed again and again that you never ever never ever never ever give anything for nothing. <br /><br />And no matter how advantageous it may be for Israel to get rid of the settlements, if I were an Arab I would perceive it as "they have blinked" and where that came from there probably is more and more and more. <br /><br />this Schwartz-guy I keep linking to suggests that Sahron evacuated Gaza because the settlements had gotten too encroached to be defendable. Is that true and if yes is that what has evolved in the West-Bank also?<br /><br />and as to my creative thinking, you don't believe that Nato or whoever else is going to come up with any guarantee worth the paper it's written on and if I were Nato I'd mind like crazy to get called out on my powerlessness and whom would I make to pay for it?<br /><br />one guess is allowed.Silkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16383345395827271854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-63696033180906927002011-04-27T20:38:15.573+03:002011-04-27T20:38:15.573+03:00"The aim of ending the occupation is to sever..."The aim of ending the occupation is to severely weaken the enemies of Jewish sovereignty by reducing the wind which currently blows in their sails."<br />also known as: "then the world will really, really, really know that we want peace."Saul Liebermanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07399120227171316267noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-25096864311228999972011-04-27T20:13:10.187+03:002011-04-27T20:13:10.187+03:00If the settlers are gone, they can't be hit -t...If the settlers are gone, they can't be hit -this certainly happened as we left Gaza, tho we don't much mention it anymore.<br /><br />If they've got a state, and they're attacking ours, the dynamic is different than if we've got one but they don't. Then it's border skirmishes between two sovereign states that disagree about their borders. Obviously, for all those that hate us in any case this won't make any difference. For those that basically accept our right to exist and even to live in security, however, while objecting to our occupation of the Palestinians, the dynamic will change, for the same reason.<br /><br />If we get so far as an independent Palestine. If not, at least we're trying, unlike today where we're universally perceived as obstructing.<br /><br />In all scenarios, the war goes on. But we've proven we can live with that.Yaacovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-55241011620698584252011-04-27T20:03:27.811+03:002011-04-27T20:03:27.811+03:00Ok. The goals are good. But why should it work n...Ok. The goals are good. But why should it work now any better than it did in gaza? Won't we still have to take all necessary measures to prevent weapons smuggling, and won't we still be condemned when we do? Plus, we'll have less freedom of action and will have to resort to more dramatic methods, perhaps directly over the heads of NATO troops. <br /><br />I just don't see how this reduces the opportunity for complex and often violent entanglement, every instance of which becomes a weapon in their hands.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4008006782907969381.post-81094269765044477322011-04-27T19:35:46.586+03:002011-04-27T19:35:46.586+03:00Silke -
See what creative thinking can do? Let...Silke -<br /><br />See what creative thinking can do? Let's maneuver into a situation where the leaders of the NATO nations need to suggest ideas that will reassure Israel, instead of chattering away about how Israel needs to take risks for peace.<br /><br />Annonymous: the rationale isn't to end the war: we can't do that, only the other side can, and it won't. Not in a significant entirety. The rationale is to disarm them of their main weapon, to return the initiative to Israel, to put everyone else on the defensive, and generally to manage the conflict in an intelligent way. That's the most we can hope for, but it's a lot, and it's better than what we've got at the moment. Considerably better.Yaacovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835192312242961481noreply@blogger.com