Thursday, January 8, 2009

What Hezbullah can Teach us About Hamas

The Rambam (Maimonides), the 12th century rabbinical giant, outlines the stages one must go through to do Tshuva, repentance. Among others stages, one must recognize what one has done wrong, sincerely regret it, take upon oneself never to repeat the transgression and be tested. It's that last stage which is interesting: it cannot be said that a sinner has truly repented until he or she has withstood the temptation of doing it again.

I mention this for what it tells us about human nature. NOT because I regard Hezbullah as having done repentance of any sort.

However: it was a telling event, this morning, when someone not from Hezbullah shot katyushas at Nahariya.

At the end of the war of summer 2006 Hezbullah celebrated its great victory over Israel. That in itself proves nothing. Nasser's Egypt celebrated its victory on the 7th day of the Six Day War: so what. And in Gaza, even if the IDF ends up killing all of the Hamas fighters but leaves three fellows still alive, they'll loudly declare victory. Hezbullah's claim in August 2006, however, was more than hollow declarations, in that the war really had been something of a draw.

After the celebrations, however, there were indications Nassrallah had a clearer idea of reality than he'd been pretending. He admitted in an interview that had he foreseen the vehemence of the Israeli onslaught he'd never have provoked it. He lives underground, rarely appearing in public. Most interestingly, the past two weeks he has been fulminating against Israel (and Egypt), but fulminations are sterile. For all his bravado, he never lifted a finger to assist Hamas when they could have used it.

Michael Totten suggests we read Tony Badran's analysis of what happened today, and since Badran knows about Lebanon and I don't, I won't argue with him when he says Hezbullah had to know about the intention to shoot those katyushas this morning. However, his thesis seems to be that the Iranians had to have somebody make some gesture from Lebanon, so they chose a minor player to make a minor gesture in a way that would give major deniability. This suggests a wariness in provoking Israel that is very healthy. It stems, I'm guessing, both from the pain inflicted in 2006, and the frightening demonstration this time that Israel has gotten its act together.

It's a bit weird to read a rocket attack on Israel as a positive sign, I admit, but the world is often a weird place, since it's populated by people.

All of this has been an introduction to some thoughts about the cease fire in Gaza which seems to be approaching, one way or the other.

I'm in favor. As a matter of fact, I'm in favor irrespective of the minutiae of the details of the agreement, although I hope the details will be the right ones. The reason I'm almost automatically in favor, however, is that it looks like this time we won, and the important players all know it.

The single most important player is Israeli society. We proved to ourselves that after the fiasco of 2006 we got back on our feet and proceeded to fix what needed fixing; having done so, we regained the confidence to defend ourselves efficiently. Since our enemies aren't about to disappear, our renewed confidence in our abilities is very important.

The second important player is Palestinian society. This is the second time in six years that we've demonstrated to them the limits of our patience, and our ability and willingness to act very forcefully when they cross those limits. I'll say it in the most black-and-white way possible: When we really get fed up we're very nasty, we're united in being nasty, and world opinion washes off our back like water off a duck. Yet the Palestinians, unlike the rest of the world, see us close up. Listen to all those Gazans as they damn us when we kill civilians. They keep on saying things like "the Israelis see we're civilians, they knew it's a school, how come they didn't behave as expected and refrain from shooting?" You've never heard Iraqi or Afghanistani victims using that sort of reasoning when mourning their dead.

The Palestinians have thus seen us close up for worse but also for better, and may have a clearer understanding of us than the world's media does.

My point is that the relative tranquility in the West Bank these past two weeks as we've been pummeling Gaza must mean something; moreover, if you listen to Avi Issacharoff and others who know what they're talking about, it may just be possible that many Gazans, too, have understood that Hamas is never going to lead them anywhere they'd like to go. If they follow the Hezbullah model, this may mean they'll continue to fulminate, but they'll hesitate to shoot. Palestinian laws mandate Palestinian elections sometime this year. I don't know if Hamas will allow them to happen, but if they do, perhaps they'll lose?

The final major player is Barack Hussein Obama. Ultimately, should it ever come to it, Israel can and will resist even an American president if he tries to force us to do something we really don't want to do. As I never tire of saying, the Jews are the oldest living group in the world because they insist on it; as a general statement, however, it hasn't hurt that they've often had a good understanding of power structures around them.

When it comes to forging reality, the Guardianistas are impotent. They pontificate, but no-one listens. The same goes for the UN, the EU, and the International Boy Scouts. Not so the President of the United States. He does make a difference. I don't know what the events in Gaza mean for Obama, any more than any of you do. We'll have to wait and see.


Anonymous said...


Today, there was an excellent article up on the Net that gave the history behind Hamas; which dates back before it's creation in 1987. To the "mufti" who backed hitler; believing there would be a pan-arab movement that would let islam conquer the world. They're still talking "big."

Hamas actually stands in the way of arabs (Fatah), who want a palestinian state. And, this crap has crapped upon them all. While standing very little chance of succeeding.

For those who follow Israel's victories (and Lebanon 2006 was "just" a political failure). But it hosted changes within the IDF, that makes today's events possible.

Also, Ehud Olmert can walk away with his head held high. That too is coming.

But it takes time to absorb what you're seeing. With real Israeli casualties; since you can't have wars without these terrible costs. Words, on the other hand, are cheap.

Perhaps you could notice, though, how fast the information comes in, knocking down the lies! Even the UN got caught with its pants down, where the casualties suffered came about because hamas turned the UN school into an amunitions depository.

So far, what's missing, is a way for some people to evaluate what's happening. But, basically, the UN, and the french are suffering blows. Assad, "the human toothbrush" also doesn't want to lose ground. And, probably isn't part of the islamists' dream of world conquest. Always, be sure to "check your facts at the door." Or you'll go crazy believing in bullshit. And, nonsense. Pretty easy to knock down IF you keep your head about you.

Right now? The UN "shifted" and so far has hit some resistance to give the arabs cover, here.

Egypt isn't taking orders from ham-ass. Though, so far, it's ham-ass who are refusing "cease fire." And, it's Israel's position that is being embraced in America. By Bush's White House. By Condi Rice. AND, by the new US SENATE. (In other words the government that's NEW, is the sworn in 111th Senate. They're backing Israel.)

Perhaps you want to believe that Obama has decided to show up for his inauguration, sans pants? (It's the Guardian that says Obama is "looking for low level talks with ham-ass." Through the CIA.) Believe what you will, but Obama is not a newcomer to politics.

ANd, yes, the riskiest game for Israel, for some reason is the media. And, ya know what? We've got enough damaged leftoids ... that give space to the lunacies of the left. But it doesn't sell in the rest of the world.

Here. It's the Internet. And, what remains obvious is that Olmert is resolved. He's also in Cairo right now. Certainly NOT a lame duck!

Will the media ever pay a price for it's nonsense?

Only if "Talmudic hair splitting" prevents rational people from finally coming to terms with the backsides of journalists; just in case they miss ham-ass blowing up.

You've been ill-served.

Israel needs to regain its MEDIA VOICE!

And, that's something that's gone, now, since at least Arik Sharon has been in a coma.

Not all arabs are in Haniyeh's STOLEN BOAT! Give credit to those who want to live. And, who don't want their women and kids used as shields. Oddly enough, they've got plenty to be afraid of when they go to "prayers" ... because the real goons, the Saudis, have changed the face of Islam, with their money. (But the saud's are first class cowards.)

Oh, and to add to european misery, putin's turned off the gas.

Bunch of THUGS.

Thugs won't win.

And, Israel is being very brave.

This, in itself, will turn into the story.

So, whether Obama shows up in pants, or not, on January 20th, he's seasoned enough as a politician, to understand the best face he can put forward. On his "honeymoon" no less.

What if I guess that among the people Obama invites to the White House ... between January 20th and February 10th ... I do not know! But try on for size, "as a private citizen."

Olmert is a man deserving of respect. He always was.

Anonymous said...


Do you really need another lesson to know that arabs don't get along with one another? THEY'RE TRIBAL! They don't belong to any state. But to groups. Just like,long ago, you had American Indians, who branched out into 500,000 different "whoopers." From coast to coast. And, ya know what? They fought among themselves!

Early American settlers called the Indians NAKED SAVAGES. And, they were.

Of course, times change.

But here's your lesson for today. It comes from the State of Georgia. Early in the 1800's. When Georgia applied to join the Union. And, there were American Indians, who had adapted to an agricultural life. They, too, wanted to be part of this new State. And, the rejection came from the majority. Recorded in American history, now, is the TRAIL OF TEARS, where the Indians were forced off their lands and moved away.

Not just Jews got "moved around."

As a matter of fact, Jews were here (in the USA), early.

But "settlements" you should know, wasn't a continuous flow. After the Civil War there was such a need for more people to fill this vast country, that it became a time for europeans to try "sea travel." And, then the influx increased.

What will be the benefits to Israel that could come out of this Gaza War? First of all, the UN has been told "enough meaningless paper." And, one country is standing up to a "problem" that breathes in europe. Where no european country knows what it can do, except "bend over backwards."

Add, the economic world turmoil ... and you'd see the next "opportunity" or problem. The europeans can close themselves off from Israel. But at the peril of growing their islamic-fascists stronger; and breeding STUPID PEOPLE! (You don't think there are people within european states, now, who realize the difference between "getting rid of the Jews," and now getting stuck with muslems?)

Well, I beg to differ.

Europe hasn't done all that well for awhile, now. And, I think FDR got it about right. It's best to ignore those turds. Their governments aren't run from any center. But just like the muslems, there are aristocrats. And, just about everything they once had of value, has gone to crap.

For Israel, the good news is that what comes next will involve tourism. As this is an economic boon. (Lebanon lost hers, ya know?) Even with it being the hash-hish capital of the world, and with all the bikini'ed beach goers, Beirut just can't come back to its old glory. Not that I care. But I do notice that having no opening for Jewish roads to come in and go out; it hurts the Lebanese far more than it hurts Israelis.)

Economic downturns will probably slow things down, too.

But the old guard at the UN, in case you haven't heard, has many in the United States saying: Take the US out of the UN. This is not a new tune, either. (Most Americans, by not paying attention to diplomats, can even pass them on the streets of New York, without recognizing any of them.)

Maybe, to be an important figure on the global stage, you should be recognizable? (True, not in China! They've purposely gone "grey.") The color that becomes communists, I guess? But it breeds more unexpressed hostilities than you can imagine!

At some point, enough "bright enough" arabs have got to want to see tourism increasing. This is true from Bethlehem, throughout the entire West Bank. Arafat's a piece of garbage buried in a parking lot. (If you think the arabs care, the truth is more a congenital defect among most of the arab tribes, where truth isn't worshipped. So they flash their savage teeth.)

It's my guess ... since I started out talking about another group of savages ... that countries do much, much better when the savages are gone from the scene.

Like Georgia. The new state became American; and the indians were sent away. (The military, by then, had better guns.)

You can learn a lot from history, when you study it. But the one thing you can't do is change a thing. Facts are facts.

Israel, by staying focussed on winning this round, has already shown the toothbrush in syria "not to get started." And, Mubarak knows more about the intercene warfare going on "diplomaticallY" than you seem to be able to figure out on your own.

Want help? Ham-ass is in the shit house.

Though if you're gonna make a movie, a few naked guys in face paint; shooting off arrows ... makes you begin watching the tales that got told.

Anonymous said...

I have made an effort to understand the pro-Israeli arguments, and have come to the conclusion that they are a cosy umbrella for racist bigots who are cold-blooded enough to justify genocide. This is very, very sad, because surveys tell us that these arguments are supported by the vast majority of the Israeli population.