Thursday, July 3, 2008

Economist: Stop Iran

The Economist analyzes the danger of Iran going nuclear and Israel trying to stop it from doing so. A sober analysis, as only the Economist knows how to do (but doesn't always, alas).

Even if Iran did get the bomb, it would probably not use it for fear of Israel’s bigger, existing stockpile. And in the (admittedly improbable) event that Iran is telling the truth when it denies having any such ambition, nothing would change its mind faster than an Israeli strike.

The trouble is, this logic looks different from Tel Aviv. Given their history, a lot of Israelis will run almost any risk to prevent a state that calls repeatedly for their own state’s destruction from acquiring the wherewithal to bring that end about. Till now, the world has talked a lot and applied some modest sanctions to stop Iran’s dash to enrich uranium. It is time to apply much tougher ones, in the hope that it is not already too late.

Now compare this with the foolish chatter of Juan Cole, on the same topic, and the same day:
It is not clear what would be attacked, anyway. Civilian enrichment labs permitted by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty?


Anonymous said...


The media is gonna be the last to know! I think we're being subjected to a lot of "noise."

And, where I see problems, I notice that Bush, in the White House, did not do much to fight the Iranians, coming in to harm the American troops. When the channel was wide open to inspection.

So, you're getting some high-powered blind eyes.

The other thing?

I've just finished reading the Israeli book, RAID ON THE SUN. About the 1981 Israeli attack on Irak's Osarik facility. Then? Ronald Reagan, new to office, blasted the Israelis. As did his representative, Jeanne Kirkpatrick.

Plus, there was a side-trip to show that Shimon Peres kaboshed the raid, as the pilots were coming out of their positions, and onto the runways. On May 10, 1981.

How? Shimon sent a personal, hand-written letter to Menachem Begin, telling him "the cat was out of the bag." (Since about 10 people within Begin'ws cabinet "knew," it fell to the Israelis to figure out who "leaked." And, that honor goes to Ezer Weitzman.)

Doesn't matter. Begin pulled together Arik Sharon, and Ivry, ONLY! Notice this. A very small group of "for your eyes, only." And rescheduled the deed for June. Where it came off without a hitch.

But, yes. Followed by vociferous global condemnation of Israel. Typical stuff.

Because of the "typical stuff" I give Olmert way more credit than I ever would give to Bibi! And, I think it's hard to be a prime minister; when you know all the shinanigans that gets pulled. And, to stay sane, you can never get involved with media games. Ever.

So, back to Iran.

Not an easy ride for the Israelis. Even though, yes, with large jets switched to fuel carriers, instead of passenger carriers, there are ways to refuel "in flight."

The recent experiment with Greece was also a way to try and re-fuel 100 planes, to keep everything flying. But this had nothing to do with Iran.

I'm going to guess that there have been decisions that IRAN CAN DIE ALL BY ITSELF! How? The Iranians are going through different elite circles, these days. It's a kleptocracy, really. And, you'd have to know the players to know "whose in the money pot." And, who fell out.

While ALL the people are getting more and more disgusted.

Leaving Iran alone can look like leaving Lebanon "alone." Another snake pit.

So, all the talk that "Israel will do something" bypasses the "how."

For many years PRIOR to the 1981 attack, Israel's security (THE MOSSAD, or what had then been SHABACK), got wind of what was going on.

In one case? By confusing the Iraqis, who were told they needed to clean the raactor's core; went in with schleppers ... who took to scouring the surface. HELLO.

The reactor's core can't withstand "cleaning" like that! There were also other attempts. Where scientists were dropping like flies. But these obits go unreported. They happen in places like france. Where it looks like a scene where a whore and her customer went a bit too far. So it's not exactly "reportable" news.

And, that's one way to deal with this mishigas. The arabs, themselves, don't have the scientists. And, once you're involving foreigners ... you get to a point where you can also "put in" a few of your own people.

Just to use Osarik, which was built in Iraq with the "halp" of the French; there was one brave scientist, who went inside ... just as the planes were leaving. So a good "call signal" was coming out. The target was now very identifiable. Oh, and you know the outcome. Because even Reagan calmed down.

It was said, while he was given the script to "tell Israel" it was out of line, his eyelids were blinking. And, it was all he could do from hopping up and down, and giving a cheer.

Well? In AMerica, when men watch sports, they rarely get excited at the magnificent plays done by the other team; when their own team doesn't score.

Maybe, it's more like the real world than you want to know?

But Syria also just lost a nuclear plant; after the Israelis did everything else.

Unlike democracy, working behind the scenes, in the MOSSAD, are just a few men. The whole organization has less than 2000 people. Small. And, very effective.

I'll even guess more Israelis know this stuff; about what goes on behind the scenes; while the diplomats pants dance. And, keep the country out of war.

As I said, Iran can fall on its own. Why? Because thugs tend to wear out their welcome. And, it gets harder to control how humans behave.

Even when Lebanon goes on its rants about how they hate the Jews, I just laugh. They're inside a snake pit without any way out. Except for the tunnels. Which send through the hashish. Which is their mainstay.

You think Beirut is like paris?

Have I got news for you! More like the paris suburbs. Where the infestation of muslims live and cause turmoil. For how long?

Time's not on their hands!

And, yes. Countries can break apart from the inside.

All you have to do is have the patience to watch.

And, not get confused by the noise.

Noise = Media malarky.

Ibrahim Ibn Yusuf said...

You're right, Yaacov. In claiming that Iran has a peaceful nuclear program, Juan Cole shows himself to be as deranged as, well, those people who back in 2002 claimed that Iraq had no WMDs! He clearly needs medication.

so why waste so much attention on them? I really ought to learn simply to ignore them. But I probably won't.

The reason you waste attention on Cole is because you tried to engage him in a debate and he refused. It's logical; no serious scholar would be interested in debating someone who makes such fantastic claims as "Arab Israelis are respected as law-abiding citizens."