Friday, March 25, 2011

Democratic Spring in Egypt: Oh.

The story of the Egyptian revolution is still being written, but this doesn't sound good. Not what the breathless media promised us, so far.


Anonymous said...

But Roger Cohen said not to worry...Fat lot he knows.


Silke said...

Roger Cohen said also it would become a new dawn or something to that effect.

and that while all the news were there when it was still going on - it was muslim brotherhood which took over entrance control, paramedical services, blankets for those staying on the square - it was all reported but they said it doesn't mean anything. It mattered only what they believed.

but I remember very very early on before all these tidbits started arriving, Sylvia said in a comment, she had been through upheavals in Arab lands and we should expect the real masses to have their say once the turmoil is over.

She sounded plausible to me back then but of course pundits need a bit more convincing and whether any convincing in this world is going to do something to Roger Cohen is to be doubted.

NormanF said...

This is exactly why Syria's Alawite regime is shooting down protesters.

If the army stood aside in Damascus, there would be a Sunni Islamist takeover and every Alawite would be executed.

The Arab Spring doesn't promise democracy and as Barry Rubin has sarcastically write about Egypt the events there have turned from farce into the ridiculous and dangerous.

Its as if the Western World threw away decades of liberalism, common sense and a dedication to truth and reality.

And now the Muslim Brotherhood in the long term looks set to take over Egypt. The meddling in the Arab World by Western dilettantes and ignoramuses have produced an epic disaster for Western interests in the Middle East.

We'll all be paying the price for that folly for decades to come.

Anonymous said...

I think the likely future for Arab states will be like the traditional Latin-American cycle of dictator-revolution-dictator.

This could go on for a century or more.

Israel should keep its defenses alert.

But nobody could regret the removal of Ghaddafi from power (except his sons).


MSS said...

About what the NYT calls "a record turnout," it's hardly impressive compared to other countries' transitional referenda.

Anonymous said...

>history is still being written, but this doesn't sound good.

It doesn't sound good. It sounds bad. But Sandmonkey still has his tail well up.


AKUS said...

The takeover by organized groups like the military and the MB was inevitable to anyone with the faintest knowledge of similar revolutions, if that is what we want to call it.

Actually, it is oddly reminiscent of what has happened with Obama - a man gets elected by a group of youngsters, who then go back to playing video games and texting on their smartphones, while his administration is taken over by the usual crowd of political insiders.

Sylvia said...

I don't know which post you're referring to Silke and what was the context but what I think I might have said is that the masses stay put in their homes, from time to time they check where the wind is blowing and after the turmoil is over they'll acclaim the next dictator -once he emerges. And that the role of the army remains to be seen. Something like that.

I am now convinced that this was a Muslim Brotherhood coup aided and abetted by Al Jazeera. I don't think the Americans have realized at the time that the AlJazeera crew had been expelled by Mubarak already on the first Friday and that they kept rerunning the same videos of that violent day.
The word on the Arab (virtual) street is that Al Jazeera (which they tend to nickname Al-Khanzira/the porcine) did the bidding for the Sheikh of Qatar.

Apparently - and I didn't catch all the details - Mubarak, the Sultan of Bahrein and the Saudi King had harshly criticized the Sheikh when he ousted his own father in a bloodless coup a few years ago.

Another indication that the "revolution" was supervised by the Muslim Brotherhood is an instruction I had read at the time on their revolution page on facebook urging protesters to avoid displaying "signs of loyalty to the Muslim Brotherhood".In other words, hide that they belong to the MB youth.

So far, the constitutional change that would have given equality to all citizens regardless of their religions - in E. Islam is the religion of the State and Sharia its legal instrument - will not be discussed. It has been skipped in the first referendum, a victory for the MB.

Silke said...

Yes Sylvia
the first part is what you told me the first time around and that together with one piece by Sky's Tim Marshall made me realize how tiny the percentage of the protesters was compared to the rest who when it comes to voting will listen to the mosque.

The Coptic priest said nothing about AlJazeera but he said that the constitution panel has been pretty much hijacked by the MB.

Anyway anything else would have been a miracle and that lovely lovely Amr Moussa said in German Der Spiegel about the peace treaty with Israel that

Moussa: Our policies will be moderate and geared toward balance. As president, I would naturally uphold all international agreements, including those with Israel.

SPIEGEL: You would, but the Muslim Brothers probably wouldn't.

Moussa: Should they become the most powerful force, against all expectations, Israel will have to live with it. Democracy is democracy. I'm sorry, but you can't choose who wins the election.

SPIEGEL: You too are considered highly critical of Israeli policy.

Moussa: Egypt fully supports the joint Arab position toward Israel. The Palestinians need their own, viable state, and Israel has to withdraw from the occupied territories. And as a very first step, the blockade of the Gaza Strip…

SPIEGEL: …which is controlled by the radical Islamic group Hamas…

Moussa: …has to be lifted, immediately and in full.,1518,druck-750969,00.html

Sorry if I'm not PC but I can't imagine him saying that without a sneer.