Friday, April 8, 2011

UN-Supported Unilateral Palestinian Independence Will Mean War

I'm still trying to figure out what a September 2011 UN-Supported declaration of Palestinian independence would mean, and will write about this sometime soon. In the meantime, here's Yoel Meltzer's scenario. I don't find it convincing, but it's worth the read.


Aaron said...

Israel's going to accept a significant number of Palestinians under a "law of return"? No way. Israeli leaders know what that means.

Yes, this thing will be bad if it happens, and it may even start a new war, but it won't be as bad as this guy says.

Remember what everybody was warning about, just yesterday it seems, before this statehood-declaration plan hit the news? The big threat was that the Palestinians were ready to forget about an independent state and demand the "one-state solution," the right to vote in Israeli elections. It was supposedly becoming too late to establish a Palestinian state in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza. I think Michael Oren even said that it had already become too late. So what's the scenario now? That the Palestinians will declare a state in Judea and Samaria, but then the next day say never mind - because of the occupation we're dissolving our state and demanding a vote in Israeli elections?

Speaking of Judea and Samaria (as opposed to Gaza), the conventional wisdom is that Israeli troops are the only thing preventing a Hamas takeover of the West Bank. I have no idea if that's true, but if it is - and it would seem much more likely in the case of statehood, in which case Iran would get more involved - then why would Fatah even want the Israeli occupation to end? This Meltzer guy doesn't even consider the possiblity of a Palestinian civil war if anything close to a real state comes into being. Wouldn't an independent Palestinian state and a full Israeli withdrawal be suicide for Fatah, if the conventional wisdom is correct?

NormanF said...

A Palestinian state would be run by Hamas.

Israeli leftists and the media are throwing sand in people's eyes. Israel would be surrounded on all sides by an Iranian regime.

Why the Israeli government keeps putting off annexing Yesha in the face of this very real threat, I have no earthly idea. But it exists all the same.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the link of Meltzers article-from my vantage point in the Galut -most of what he writes seems likely-I would add the Palestinians might invite in Russian or Chinese UN observors to ensure themselves that they don't experience Israeli "aggression". This of course would limit the IDFs freedom immensely.
Sadly, most in Israel don't see the threat-and sadly it can't be countered by us against the world.

Raed Kami said...

Not only will the UN vote for Palestine but specify its borderss-from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, IN essence the UN will revoke the existence of Israel because it hase become a pest to the world. The, the UN will authorize a joint Anglo-Turkish-Iranian flotilla to enforce compliance and your right of return to Europe. Mr Soros will fund your right of return with the billions he has stolen from Islamic countries thru currency speculation

Yaacov said...

Raed Karmi: wasn't that that important terrorist we killed back in 2001?